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  • Statistics and Data Analysis Group

    Marius Ötting
    © Universität Bielefeld

Dr. Marius Ötting

© Marius Ötting

Postdoctoral research associate

Room V9-128
Phone: +49 521 106-4885
E-mail: marius.oetting@uni-bielefeld.de

Short CV

  • Since 10/2020: Postdoc within the DFG project "Datengestützte Indikation von Betrug bei Live-Wetten"
  • 10/2021-03/2022: Interim Professor for Data Science and Applied Statistics at TU Clausthal
  • 03/2017-09/2020: PhD student in the Statistics and Data Analysis Group
  • 10/2014-02/2017: Studies of Statistical Science (M.Sc.), Bielefeld University
  • 10/2011-09/2014: Studies of Economics (B.Sc.), Bielefeld University

Publications in peer-reviewed journals

Current preprints

Talks

  • "Modelling women’s football scores", RSS Prediction Competition (held online), July, 2023
  • "Lasso-based order selection in hidden Markov models: a case study using stock market data", 37th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Dortmund, July 2023
  • "Predicting play-calls in the NFL using Markov-switching decision trees", 10th MathSport International, Budapest, Hungary, June 2023
  • "Extending the Dixon and Coles model: an application to women's football data", 7th AUEB Sports Analytics Workshop, Athens, Greece, May 2023
  • "A varying coefficient state-space model for investigating betting behaviour within in-play markets", 15th CMStatistics, London, UK, December 2022
  • "A varying-coefficient state-space model for investigating betting behaviour within in-play markets", 36th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Trieste, Italy, July 2022
  • "Staking and losing in live betting markets: how bookmakers profit", 9th MathSport International, Reading, UK, June 2022
  • "In-play betting: Are markets efficient and how do bookmakers make profit?", 15th CFE (held online), December 2021
  • "A copula-based hidden Markov model for classification of tactics in football", New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports (held online), October 2021 (video available at https://youtu.be/X2m40JSS2M0)
  • "Regularisation in hidden Markov models with an application to football data", 35th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling (held online), July 2021
  • "Analysing football tactics using high-frequency tracking data", 8th MathSport International (held online), Reading, UK, June 2021 (video available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4y7_2fVxI0U)
  • "Analysing football tactics using high-frequency tracking data", 5th AUEB Sports Analytics Workshop (held online), Athens, Greece, May 2021
  • "Exploratory analysis of in-game betting dynamics”, Reading Online Sports Economics Seminars, Reading, UK, January 2021 (video availabe at youtu.be/Gx2kaApYpqs)
  • "Modelling self-reported criminal behaviour using hidden Markov models”, Sociology Seminar Series (held online), Bielefeld, May 2020
  • "Does the hot hand exist? An analysis of professional darts using state-space models”, Online Seminar of the RSS WMLG, April 2020 (video available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Na9WThVh1m0)
  • "A regularized hidden Markov model for analyzing the 'hot shoe' in football", 12th CMStatistics, London, UK, December 2019
  • "A regularized hidden Markov model for analyzing the 'hot shoe' in football", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, November 2019
  • "A copula-based multivariate hidden Markov model for modelling momentum in football", 34th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Guimarães, Portugal, July 2019
  • "Modelling momentum in football", 7th MathSport International, Athens, July 2019
  • "Performance when stakes are high: do professional darts players keep their cool?", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, May 2019
  • "A copula-based multivariate hidden Markov model for modelling momentum in football", DAGStat, Munich, March 2019
  • "An analysis of a hot hand effect in professional darts using state-space models", 11th CMStatistics, Pisa, Italy, December 2018
  • "Modeling Momentum in Soccer", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, December 2018
  • "The Hot Hand in Professional Darts", 33rd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Bristol, UK, July 2018
  • "The Hot Hand in Professional Darts", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, June 2018
  • "Evaluating fraud detection systems in sports betting using bivariate distributional regression", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, October 2017
  • "Match-Fixing in the Italian Serie B - An Empirical Approach Using Flexible Regression", 9th ESEA European Conference on Sport Economics, Paderborn, August 2017
  • "Match-Fixing in the Italian Serie B – An Empirical Approach Using Flexible Regression", Workshop of the Centre for Statistics, Bielefeld, May 2017
  • "Detecting match-fixing in football - an analysis of the Bundesliga and 3. Liga in Germany", Statistics Seminar Series, Bielefeld, January 2017

Software

Teaching

  • Lecture "Ingenieurstatistik I" (TU Clausthal, winter term 2021/22)
  • Lecture "Statistical methods of machine learning" (TU Clausthal, winter term 2021/22)
  • Lecture series "Big data is watching you! Vom selbstbestimmten Umgang mit Daten in der modernen Welt" (winter term 2019/20)
  • Organiser and instructor for R courses (2017-2021)
  • Seminar on "Daten in den Medien - Information versus Manipulation" (2020 - 2021)
  • Statistical Consulting (2018-2020)
  • Practicals for the lecture course "Grundlagen der Statistik" (2017-2019)
  • Tutorials for the lecture courses "Angewandte Statistik", "Statistik I", "Statistik II" and "Einführung in die Ökonometrie" (2013 - 2017)
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