Social Security in Crisis Mode (SoSiKri)
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Social Security in Crisis Mode
Introduction of the project
Kicking off in the first half of 2024, the junior research group “Social Security in Crisis Mode” („Soziale Sicherung im Krisenmodus - SoSiKri“) led by Dr. John Berten and funded by the Fördernetzwerk Interdisziplinäre Sozialpolitikforschung (FIS) sets out to analyse eco-social policy reforms in social security systems with an emphasis on crisis anticipation and futures.
With ecological crises ever-worsening, the social implications of these developments become more and more visible. Fueled by climate change, inequality is on the rise across the globe, showing the interconnection of the social and ecological spheres.
The SoSiKri project is situated in this intertwined field of eco-social policy, divided into four pillars which will be shortly introduced in the following paragraphs.
Pillar A: Impact of eco-social crises on reform proposals of the German social security system – Power and agenda setting on the national level
Historically, Germany has been at the forefront of the implementation of social security. In the 1880s, Otto von Bismarck systematically introduced social insurance in Germany as a response to changes in society and labour, setting the earliest foundation for a modern welfare state. Fast forward 140 years later, the German social security system is confronted by new challenges. The eco-social crisis – climate change and its implications for inequality – highly influence social policy. Additionally, issues like national demographic developments or recent political upheavals – such as election results – seem to be pace-setting for eco-social policy and social security reforms.
In this time of crisis, eco-social policy reforms need to be introduced to tackle the aforementioned challenges in the fairest way possible. In Germany’s case (and all over the world!), policy proposals for potential reforms are highly contested. Classical actors in these policy fields are, for example, political parties or labour unions. In recent developments, new eco-social alliances, e.g. Attac or Fridays for Future, emerge at all stages of the policy cycle and push for different goals while building new networks and coalitions.
Info box:
The policy cycle is a framework used to understand the process of policy-making. At first, problem formulation takes place to define the issue. In the second stage, a problem is put on the (political) agenda. Then, a potential policy, building on the emerging discussion, will be formulated and, in a next step, a decision on its acceptance will be made. In the end, the final policy has to be implemented and evaluated. The policy cycle itself is iterative, meaning that the feedback from the evaluation stage can lead to the reentering of earlier stages to refine or develop new policies.
This pillar of the project highlights the different actors of reform proposals, identifies who sets the agenda, and evaluates how power is used to push specific agendas on the stage of political decision-making. In particular, the recognition of futures and crisis anticipation emerge as new topics in the interconnected fields of politics and sociology. Therefore, futures and crisis anticipation lie at the core of the whole project. Methodology-wise, Pillar A focuses on interviews with experts, a document analysis and an overarching discourse network analysis.
Pillar B: International comparison of social security system reforms
The welfare state and social policy are poised to play crucial roles in the urgent and comprehensive social-ecological transformation. The concept of ‘sustainable welfare’ and theories of human need provide a theoretical backdrop for this new wave of state engagement and social policy.
Given the transnational nature of eco-social policy, this pillar focuses on examining crisis phenomena not just within their national and political contexts but also through an internationally comparative lens. This approach seeks to move beyond the European-centric focus on social security, incorporating perspectives from the Global South.
Traditional Western welfare models, long used to study social policy in the Global North, have struggled to fully explain the complex social protection systems in other regions, particularly in the Global South. Alternative models, such as those from the Asian Tigers and the emerging donor-recipient frameworks, remain under-researched and offer rich areas for further study.
The aim of this pillar is to deepen our understanding of welfare and well-being in the context of crises and to capture the resulting social changes. To achieve this, we will conduct a comprehensive literature review and gather data on existing social security system reforms worldwide. A systematic analysis will then map the distribution of these reforms across different countries, leading to the development of a system of indicators and a typology of reform proposals.
Methodologically, this pillar will employ statistical techniques through a quantitative large-n analysis. This approach enables a detailed international comparison of social security systems and reforms, providing valuable insights for researchers of eco-social security policy as well as for stakeholders interested in reforming social security schemes and systems. As such, the results of this comparative analysis may ultimately also contribute to the creation of new models for social security system reforms.
Pillar C: Agenda-setting and problem formulation at the global and world-regional level
With roots tracing back to late 19th century Germany, it was the emergence of global crises in the early 20th century which sparked the acceleration of social security systems. The devastation of the Great Depression and World War II, for example, called for the expansion of welfare states, particularly in Western Europe and the U.S.
In the Global South, social security systems have evolved through a mix of colonial legacies, economic challenges and social movements. Early initiatives, often modeled on European systems, were however limited in terms of scope and accessibility. In South America, countries like Argentina and Brazil pioneered pension schemes, while post-colonial Africa and Asia introduced social security programmes as part of nation-building. Despite challenges like limited coverage and funding, recent decades have seen a shift toward more inclusive policies, with nations like South Africa, India and Brazil expanding access to address poverty and inequality.
Today, social security systems vary widely, shaped by each country's unique political, economic and cultural context, aiming to transform uncertainties into calculable lifecourse risks and provide support and protection to its citizens.
However, eco-social policy research stipulates that these traditional lifecourse risks are complicated by ecological crises leading to the emergence of “new” risks which may require social security reform to protect citizens directly and indirectly impacted by the negative effects of climate change.
Historically, international organisations (IOs), such as the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the World Bank have played pivotal roles in shaping global social security policy. Recognised as experts, they have used their agenda-setting power to advocate for universal coverage, set international standards, and provide technical assistance to countries in the Global South. Their influence has helped to align national policies with global norms and encouraged the expansion of social protection as a key tool for poverty reduction and sustainable development.
This pillar of the project is concerned with: 1. pinpointing when exactly social security reforms started addressing ecological crises, and how these ideas have evolved over time; 2. which regional and transnational actors are shaping ecological crisis expectations, and how they problematise social security systems; and 3. how future expectations influence (the) idea(s) of social security.
Initial insights show that IOs are not acting alone, but rather in co-operation with development and humanitarian agencies to propose reforms to social security systems. Examples such as adaptive social protection (ASP) and shock-responsive social protection (SRSP) aim to anticipate and adapt to new risks posed by climate change.
With such a variety of organisations and key actors to consider, opinions of the reform of global social security policy are deeply divided. The complexity of the issue is compounded by vertical and horizontal inequalities, as well as differing interpretations of responsibility, which challenge the very concept of what "global" means in this context. This raises important questions about the future of global social security policy which this subproject will specifically address through the use of discourse analysis and expert interviews.
Pillar D: Reflection
Crises and uncertainty are omnipresent in today’s political landscape. In this context, actors increasingly resort to crisis anticipation to legitimise and frame social security reform proposals. In an overarching theorisation pillar, this subproject systematises main concepts of the project as a whole.
The main focus lies on different types of crisis anticipation and their effects, such as forecasts and scenarios. How do (future) ideas become relevant? And how are crisis expectations translated into reform drafts? This subproject examines forms of crisis anticipation, as well as their political significance and impact on eco-social security reforms.
The subproject also aims at evaluating the role of crisis anticipation compared to other factors that shape eco-social policy reforms, such as political dynamics or entrenched institutions. The role of different ideas, interests and preferences may vary depending on the context. In this regard, the focus is on understanding how anticipatory ideas are translated into reform plans to achieve political goals.
Additionally, this subproject analyses general transformations of social security in the face of crises. Pillar D collaborates with other project pillars to explore trends like the increased focus on preventive measures, the connection of social and ecological aspects in reform proposals, as well as general developments in social security, such as towards a possible ‘securitisation’ of welfare state institutions due to crisis threats.
Methodologically, this subproject relies on theoretical perspectives from political science such as diffusion studies and policy analysis, as well as sociological theories on the political role of futures and anticipation, which are empirically approached through a qualitative content analysis. Regarding crisis anticipation, Pillar D analyses reform proposals through the concept of policy learning, which involves past policy experiences and evaluations of their outcomes, complemented by anticipations of future crisis effects.
Conclusion and Outlook
With this project we show how social security reform approaches emerge from perceptions of uncertainty and crisis, enabling social security systems to react, preempt and prevent the effects of crises at an individual and a societal level. Through the various subprojects, theoretical focal points are established and analyses are conducted at the national (Germany), international and global level in order to provide a comprehensive and multidimensional picture of social security in times of crisis.
Our short-term goal – apart from conducting exciting and new scientific research – is to publish several blog posts as well as podcasts to ensure you are kept up-to-date on our project and its implications for society.
Parallel to this initial blog post, Dr. John Berten has published a second post specifically addressing the topic of futures and anticipation in social security which you definitely won’t want to miss.
Stay tuned for more!